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VOL. 12, ISSUE 11 (2025)
Modeling of Peruvian population growth using a modified logistic equation with birth, death, and Venezuelan immigration parameters (2016–2019)
Authors
Juan Ivan Anazco Valdivia, Heron Juan Morales Marchena, Ruben Dario Mendoza Arenas, Teodoro Moore Flores, Marisol Paola Delgado Baltazar, Raphael Santiago Mendoza Delgado
Abstract
This study proposes a modified logistic model
to describe Peruvian population growth during the Venezuelan immigration period
(2016–2019). Unlike classical Malthusian and Verhulst models, an additional
term accounting for migration, birth, and death rates is included. Using INEI,
UNHCR, and IOM data, the parameters were fitted via numerical methods in
MATLAB. Results indicate that immigration caused a temporary shift in the net
growth rate, increasing total population by 5.6% over four years. The modified
logistic approach proves effective for demographic prediction under migratory
shocks.
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Pages:110-115
How to cite this article:
Juan Ivan Anazco Valdivia, Heron Juan Morales Marchena, Ruben Dario Mendoza Arenas, Teodoro Moore Flores, Marisol Paola Delgado Baltazar, Raphael Santiago Mendoza Delgado "Modeling of Peruvian population growth using a modified logistic equation with birth, death, and Venezuelan immigration parameters (2016–2019)". International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development, Vol 12, Issue 11, 2025, Pages 110-115
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