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VOL. 12, ISSUE 1 (2025)
GLDAS-based assessment of long-term climate change indicators and implications for agriculture and water resources in Nigeria
Authors
Ayodeji Adekunle Eluyemi, Peter Adetokunbo, Michael Ayuk Ayuk, Imuetinyan Aigbogun, A P Adesope
Abstract
The vulnerability of Nigeria to climate change necessitates comprehensive
assessment of longterm surface energy balance trends to support adaptation
planning across agricultural, water resource, and public health sectors. This
study analyzed 25 years (2000-2025) of Global Land Data Assimilation System
(GLDAS) satellite-derived data to characterize temporal and spatial patterns in
surface air temperature and net shortwave radiation across Nigeria's diverse
climate zones. Linear trend analysis reveals statistically significant warming
of +0.045°C/year (R² = 0.349, p = 0.0015), representing cumulative temperature
increase of 1.130C over the study period, with mean annual
temperature rising from 27.45°C in 2000 to 27.70°C in 2025. Net shortwave
radiation exhibits brightening trend of +0.515 W/m²/year (R² = 0.513, p <
0.001), totaling 12.88 W/m² increase corresponding to 6.8% enhancement in
surface energy availability. Spatial analysis demonstrates pronounced
north-south gradients with northern Sahel regions experiencing 4-6°C higher
temperatures than southern coastal zones, while net radiation shows 60-80 W/m²
spatial range. Seasonal comparison reveals dry season (November-April)
temperatures exceed wet season (May-October) by 0.59°C (p < 0.001), with net
radiation differential of +24.46 W/m² (13.5% higher during dry season, p <
0.001). Inter-annual variability analysis shows temperature standard deviation
of 1.54°C and net radiation variability of 13.52 W/m², indicating substantial
year-to-year fluctuations superimposed on long-term trends. The observed
warming rate aligns with West African regional climate projections and exceeds
global mean warming rates, with implications for agricultural productivity
through heat stress on major crops, increased evapotranspiration demands
affecting water resources and reservoir management, enhanced urban heat island
effects in rapidly expanding cities, and elevated public health risks from
extreme heat events. The brightening trend in net radiation suggests potential
changes in cloud cover, atmospheric aerosol loading, or land surface albedo
modifications linked to deforestation and agricultural expansion.
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Pages:96-104
How to cite this article:
Ayodeji Adekunle Eluyemi, Peter Adetokunbo, Michael Ayuk Ayuk, Imuetinyan Aigbogun, A P Adesope "GLDAS-based assessment of long-term climate change indicators and implications for agriculture and water resources in Nigeria". International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development, Vol 12, Issue 1, 2025, Pages 96-104
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