Vol. 4, Issue 6 (2017)
Estimation of growth rates and decomposition analysis of rice and wheat production in India
Author(s): Pawan Kumar, Himani Shekhar
Abstract: The paper investigates the trends in
production, area and yield of rice and wheat in India from 1950-51 to 2015-16.
The study divides the data into five intervals namely, 1950-51 to 1966-67,
1967-68 to 1979-80, 1980-81 to 1989-90, 1990-91 to 1999-2000 and 2000-01 to
2015-16. The study clearly finds that production Compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of rice was highest at 3.61 percent during the period of 1980-81 to
1989-90. During this period the yield CAGR of rice was also highest at 3.18
percent while area CAGR was at merely 0.41 percent. The production CAGR of
wheat was highest at 5.40 percent during the period 1967-68 to 1979-80. During
the same period area and yield CAGR of wheat was also highest at 3.11 percent
and 2.29 percent respectively. CAGR of rice and wheat production was minimal at
1.83 percent and 2.49 percent respectively in the period of 2000-01 to 2015-16.
During this period yield CAGR of wheat is minimum at 1.15 percent while area
CAGR of rice minimum at 0.02 percent. The decomposition analysis of production
suggest that during 1980-81 to 1989-90 and 1990-91 to 1999-2000, the yield
effect was major source of both rice and wheat production growth while
interestingly the area effect was dominating for both rice and wheat during the
period of 1967-68 to 1979-80. During the period 2000-01 to 2015-16 the area effect
for rice production growth was negative while yield effect was 116.42 percent.
However for wheat production area effect was dominating the yield effect for