Vol. 3, Issue 3 (2016)
Analysis of rainfall data, prediction of trend and environmental impacts on ground water system recharge of Meghnagar area, Jhabua district, Madhya Pradesh, India
Author(s): Dharmishtha Nigwal, Pramendra Dev
Abstract: The paper incorporates results of rainfall data analysis for 26 years (1990-2015), the prediction of rainfall trend and environmental implications on the ground water system recharge of the Meghnagar area located in Jhabua district of Madhya Pradesh, India. The rainfall data have been sunjected to both the mathematical and statistical analyses and the environmental impacts on the ground water system recharge have been discussed. Mathematical analysis of rainfall data indicates a fairly good variation range from 380 mm (1992) to 1509.mm (2006) with an average of 873.14 mm. The annual departure with respect to average value indicates the nature of both positive and negative recharge trend of ground water reservoir. The cumulative departure indicates a trend of increase and decrease in the rain water to ground water system. The statistical treatment of rainfall data reveals the value of Mean = 892.31 mm, Median = 950 mm, Mode = 800 mm, Standard Deviation = 329.14, Co-efficient of dispersion = 0.368, Co-efficient of variation = 36.88, Co-efficient of skewness = 0.280 the statistical treatment of rainfall data provides precise values indicating the nature of recharge trend. Based on time series analysis, an attempt has been made to determine the trends of expected annual rainfall in coming years. The analysis of rainfall data points out that higher rainfall amount than the annual average value is indicating the period of favourable recharge to ground water system, whereas, lower values than the average value point out the negative trend of recharge that reflects the shortage of water supply to the ground water system,, and a few times, even resulting into drought condition. The rainfall is most important hydrometreological factor that controls the nature of the ground water reservoir. The rainfall factor is also influencing the environmental scenario of development of the society, forest, agriculture and vegetation.